BCG predicts $15 trillion in travel spending in 2040: How can hotels capture their share?

Boston Consulting Group’s latest study predicts that leisure travel spending will grow 8% year on year until 2029, and then 7% from 2029 to 2040. That might sound moderate—but in real terms, it means a leap in leisure travel spend from $5 trillion today to a staggering $15 trillion by 2040. 

For hoteliers, this growth represents an enormous opportunity. But where will this new demand come from—and what changes should hoteliers make today to help them seize the opportunity?

Here are our top 10 takeaways from BCG’s research to help today’s hoteliers prepare for a highly profitable future.

1. Focus on total spend, not just room nights

The number of nights spent away from home is projected to grow far slower than overall spending (4% growth in room nights vs. 8% in overall spend). Guests will spend more per trip—even if they don’t stay longer. 

Hoteliers should look beyond room revenue, refining opportunities for upsells like F&B, spa treatments, room upgrades, and experiences and making these opportunities highly visible in the guest journey. 

2. Don’t sleep on domestic and regional travelers

Domestic trips still make up about 80% of the global travel market, and domestic travel spend is set to triple by 2040. For many hotels, nearby guests will remain the backbone of their business. 

Packages for staycations or quick weekend breaks may be just as profitable as long-haul tourism–so make sure these are built into your marketing plans.

3. Keep an eye on emerging markets

While classic outbound markets like the US, UK, and Germany will stay important, the growth from these markets will likely be moderate. Emerging travel markets including China and India will be responsible for much of the rise in spend (for both China and India, international spend is projected to rise by 10% annually).

These markets are young, digitally savvy, and eager to explore. By tailoring messaging and offers to their preferences now, hotels can build demand and loyalty before competitors catch up.

4. Cater to solo travelers 

Between 18% and 39% of travelers today travel solo, and younger generations are the most likely to go on a solo trip. Rather than looking for relaxing beach trips, these travelers are looking for cultural experiences and the opportunity to connect with like-minded people. 

Highlight your connection to your community in your messaging, and think about incorporating single rooms or other solo-traveler focused offerings. Then use web personalization to make sure that those offerings are landing on the screens of the right travelers. 

5. Hyper-personalization is no longer optional

Tomorrow’s travelers expect mobile-first booking, AI-driven recommendations, and culturally relevant offers. Hotels must deliver personalized pricing, packages, and content across their direct channels, so they can turn website visits into direct bookings–and first-time guests into repeat bookers. Invest in tools that will allow you to target the right guest, with the right message, at the right time. 

6. Capture the “bleisure” wave

Work and leisure are merging, with more than 70% of travelers in emerging markets planning to combine the two (compared with less than 30% in the US, UK and Germany). 

In order to attract more bleisure travelers (which will also help with attracting those key emerging-market travelers), highlight fast wifi, flexible checkout policies, and any flexible or coworking spaces you offer. 

7. Choose your traveler archetype and tailor your marketing

Not every hotel can serve every type of traveler. BCG highlights archetypes like “fun seekers,” “safety-first families,” and “uncompromising explorers.” Identify which align most with your brand, and build full-funnel marketing campaigns specifically for those segments.

8. Build multicity packages

With cities seeing continued growth, many travelers are building trips that involve stays in multiple top destinations (a trend that’s even more prevalent with emerging-market travelers). 

Traditionally, travel agents and wholesalers have cornered this market, but this opens up a key opportunity for hotel groups with properties in multiple locations. If you fit the bill, consider creating packages that bundle stays across your destinations, encouraging guests to book direct and establishing your brand as a regional expert. 

9. Make sure you’re AI-ready

Generative AI is reshaping how travelers plan and book. AI tools like Google’s AI Overviews and ChatGPT are already guiding guests from inspiration through to booking.  Hotels need to focus on not only optimizing their sites for AI discovery, but also ensuring that they’re building AI capabilities like chatbots into their booking journey. 

10. Reinvent your loyalty program 

Points alone won’t cut it. Today’s travelers want flexible, immediate rewards like in-room upgrades and local experiences. Tailor your loyalty program to your traveler archetype–whether you’re looking for bleisure travelers, for example, or to capture more multi-generational demand. The type of perks you build in could have a direct and immediate impact on the guests you attract. 

Act now to get your share of that $15 trillion 

The $15 trillion travel boom is coming, and it won’t be evenly distributed across the hospitality industry. Hotels that act now on key initiatives like leaning into AI, targeting emerging markets, and embracing next-level personalization will gain a head start as the market continues to grow. If you’re looking to map out your next steps and futureproof your marketing strategy, our team is here to help. 

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